How We Estimate Pricing
There's no public benchmark for what machine shops pay for metal. Shops compare PDF quotes across distributors that each use different units, terms, and cutting charges. The MPB Estimate is our attempt to fill that gap. Here's how we calculate it.
Distributors post list prices. Almost nobody pays list. The MPB Estimate is the net price: we start from distributor list pricing and calibrate against the real quotes shops share with us.
Data Source
Our primary data source is Ryerson, a major national metals distributor. Ryerson publishes volume-tiered pricing for thousands of products. Different $/lb at different order quantities. We capture these tiers daily and use them as the foundation for our market estimates.
Why Ryerson? They're one of the largest metals service centers in North America and one of the few that publishes volume-tiered pricing publicly. Most distributors keep this behind a login or a phone call.
How the MPB Estimate Is Calculated
Ryerson publishes volume pricing tiers for most products. Different $/lb at 200 lbs, 1,000 lbs, 2,000 lbs, 5,000 lbs, and so on. We anchor most estimates on the best distributor list tier(highest quantity, lowest $/lb). For Brass quote checks with a known order weight, we use the list tier matching that weight instead.
That tier price is still a distributor list price. Shops with established accounts and regular volume often negotiate below it. We apply an estimated net adjustment based on the material and the quote evidence available:
| Category | Estimated Net Adjustment | Example Alloys |
|---|---|---|
| Brass | 0~10% below | Evidence currently from C360 |
| Commodity | 15~30% below | 6061 Al, A36, 1018, 304 SS |
| Standard | 8~15% below | 4140, 7075 Al, 316 SS, 12L14 |
| Specialty | 5~12% below | Titanium, Inconel, Tool Steel |
The low end of the range is a shop with strong leverage. Consistent volume, competitive bids from other distributors. The high end is a smaller or newer account buying at moderate volume.
Community Calibration
On every product page, you can submit what you actually pay. We compare your price to the MPB Estimate and show you how your price compares. Over time, these submissions help us calibrate the discount bands. If most shops report paying 20% below list on 6061, but we estimated 15~30%, we now know the center of gravity is closer to 20%.
All submissions are confidential. We never share individual data points or contact information.
Real-World Validation
We calibrate our estimates against real quotes from shop owners. These data points show whether an alloy tracks the best list tier or the list tier matching the order weight, and they help us tune the adjustment ranges above. Every shop that shares pricing through the product pages helps us tighten the range further.
For multi-line RFQs, calibration happens after the quote analysis. We compare each supplier's same-material basket with the matching list tiers before setting an adjustment range. This prevents a low price on one size and a compensating high price on another from distorting the model. Isolated outlier lines and orders below the smallest available list bracket do not set the range.
Calibrations start at the material-family level. We review an alloy-level split once at least two alloys in a family each have three independent RFQ events. A difference of 5 percentage points or more between their basket medians triggers that review; it does not change the production model automatically.
Why Prices Vary
The MPB Estimate is a range, not a single number. That's intentional. Your actual price depends on order volume, your relationship and commitment level with your supplier, whether you're buying cut-to-length or full mill lengths, what your local service center stocks, and how flexible they are on minimums.
Limitations
These are estimates, not quotes. Our data comes from one major national distributor. Your local service center may price differently. Prices refresh daily but your actual spot quote may differ from what we show. Not every product has volume tier data, and when it doesn't, our estimate is less precise.
Published distributor pricing varies by region. Our data reflects pricing for a Southern California service center region; other regions may differ by a few percent. Depending on your location and nearest warehouse, you may see different list prices on the same distributor's website. The estimated net adjustments we apply are independent of region.
We're actively expanding coverage to more alloys, shapes, and sizes. If a product you need is missing, let us know.
Help Make This Better
If you buy metal regularly, you can help calibrate these estimates. Look for "Check your quoted price" on any product page. Your input is what turns a list price into a real market benchmark.