How We Estimate Pricing
There's no public benchmark for what machine shops pay for metal. Shops compare PDF quotes across distributors that each use different units, terms, and cutting charges. The MPB Estimate is our attempt to fill that gap. Here's how we calculate it.
Data Source
Our primary data source is Ryerson, a major national metals distributor. Ryerson publishes volume-tiered pricing for thousands of products. Different $/lb at different order quantities. We capture these tiers daily and use them as the foundation for our market estimates.
Why Ryerson? They're one of the largest metals service centers in North America and one of the few that publishes volume-tiered pricing publicly. Most distributors keep this behind a login or a phone call.
How the MPB Estimate Is Calculated
Ryerson publishes volume pricing tiers for most products. Different $/lb at 200 lbs, 1,000 lbs, 2,000 lbs, 5,000 lbs, and so on. We anchor on the best published volume tier (highest quantity, lowest $/lb) because real-world data from shops shows prices cluster near the best available tier, even for buyers who aren't the largest.
That tier price is still a published list price. Shops with established accounts and regular volume negotiate below it. So we apply a relationship discount on top. The size depends on how commoditized the material is:
| Category | Relationship Discount | Example Alloys |
|---|---|---|
| Commodity | 15~30% | 6061 Al, A36, 1018, 304 SS |
| Standard | 8~15% | 4140, 7075 Al, 316 SS, 12L14 |
| Specialty | 5~12% | Titanium, Inconel, Tool Steel |
The low end of the range is a shop with strong leverage. Consistent volume, competitive bids from other distributors. The high end is a smaller or newer account buying at moderate volume.
Community Calibration
On every product page, you can submit what you actually pay. We compare your price to the MPB Estimate and show you how your price compares. Over time, these submissions help us calibrate the discount bands. If most shops report paying 20% below list on 6061, but we estimated 15~30%, we now know the center of gravity is closer to 20%.
All submissions are anonymous. We never share individual data points or contact information.
Real-World Validation
We calibrate our estimates against real quotes from shop owners. These data points confirm that prices cluster near the best published volume tier, even for mid-size buyers, and they help us tune the discount bands above. Every shop that shares pricing through the product pages helps us tighten the range further.
Why Prices Vary
The MPB Estimate is a range, not a single number. That's intentional. Your actual price depends on order volume, your relationship and commitment level with your supplier, whether you're buying cut-to-length or full mill lengths, what your local service center stocks, and how flexible they are on minimums.
Limitations
These are estimates, not quotes. Our data comes from one major national distributor. Your local service center may price differently. Prices refresh daily but your actual spot quote may differ from what we show. Not every product has volume tier data, and when it doesn't, our estimate is less precise.
Published distributor pricing varies by region. Our data reflects pricing for the Los Angeles, CA area. Depending on your location and nearest warehouse, you may see different list prices on the same distributor's website. The relationship discount bands we apply are independent of region.
We're actively expanding coverage to more alloys, shapes, and sizes. If a product you need is missing, let us know.
Help Make This Better
If you buy metal regularly, you can help calibrate these estimates. Look for "How does your price compare?" on any product page. Your input is what turns a list price into a real market benchmark.