The Material Report #019

This fortnight in 30 seconds

Steel mill lead times now run into December, some into 2027

For January and February sheet or plate jobs you've won, check availability with your distributor this week. Ask whether your metal is on their floor or a confirmed mill order. Get the delivery date in writing with the price. Mill lead times (the wait for new production) are stretching out, slowing replenishment. Floor stock may ship sooner.

Steel Market Update (SMU) reported October 15 that average mill lead times run into mid- or late December, with some mills quoting 2027. Its October 16 report put sheet waits at their longest since 2021. Plate averaged 11 weeks, a record in SMU's data since 2018.

Averages hide big gaps by mill and size. SMU's report on Nucor's October 12 sheet offer noted 3~5 week lead times. Your wait depends on your distributor's mill source and the gauge or thickness on your print.

Distributors are restocking from thin inventories. SMU reported September flat-rolled inventory at 2.18 months of supply, 15.5% below a year earlier. Its mill order index hit a record that month. Steel producers in the Cleveland Fed's October 14 Beige Book reported strong demand and lean customer stock.

Prices are rising too. SMU reports Nucor lifted its posted hot-rolled coil price (the base for sheet) to $1,255 a short ton on October 19, up $25 from #018. On plate, SMU reports an October 1 Nucor notice seeking $60 a ton more for November, while doubling its fuel surcharge to $40 a ton from November 1.

Watch the plate calendar. Nucor's October 23 cutoff is for mill buyers, so your distributor may need your PO earlier. Ordering in October won't avoid the November fuel surcharge on November shipments, and submitting a mill order doesn't guarantee acceptance. Ask which charges and ship dates your written price covers.

There is a little room to negotiate on sheet. In SMU's October 15 survey, 14% of buyers said mills would negotiate price, up from 11%, with more give on sheet than plate. September import licenses hit a 14-month high, per SMU, though a license doesn't guarantee delivery to your supplier. Still ask about price on sheet quotes.

In #018, I said to lock in committed work without building extra stock. Extend that check to January and February jobs: confirm your size is available, reserve it, and get a ship date for the balance. Make your customer quote expire before your supplier's price does, and buy ahead only for work you've won.

From our benchmark

These are list prices from one national distributor, Southern California basis. We compare medians for the same products in complete weeks: September 28 to October 4 versus October 12 to 18.

The main daily A500 tube increase was first observed October 13. An earlier Nucor Tubular notice, dated September 29, sought 5 cents/lb ($100/ton) more. Mill offers and distributor lists use different price bases; their changes do not establish a markup or cause. Confirm any older A500 quote still holds.

Plate coverage is thin and sensitive to stock dimensions, so I cannot reliably measure the mill increase reaching those lists.

Pricing notes

Steel bar: SMU's October 9 report described several mills offering $20 a gross ton more for October scrap than in September. That is 0.89 cents per pound of scrap, not finished bar. If a rep blames scrap for a bigger bar hike, ask what else supports it.

Stainless: For 304 or 316 shipping in November, don't assume October's surcharge carries over. Request the schedule and have the supplier put the surcharge month on the quote before you sign.

Aluminum: Over the benchmark weeks, 6061 sheet and plate lists each fell a median 15 cents/lb across 12 and 25 products respectively, reversing #018's plate increase. Refresh sheet or plate quotes for firm work; don't expect the same drop on bar.

Copper and brass: Reuters reported October 14 that no decision had been announced on a proposed January 2027 refined-copper tariff. Refined copper is nearly pure mill feedstock; semi-finished copper is shaped bar, sheet, or tube. Either can be imported, and the proposal is separate from existing duties on covered shaped stock. Before buying ahead, have your supplier verify the rule for your product's classification and origin.

Diesel and freight: EIA's October 12 survey put diesel at $6.179 a gallon, down 20.3 cents since September 28. Nucor's November plate fuel surcharge rises anyway. Ask whether your plate quote includes a mill fuel surcharge plus your distributor's delivery fee.

Beyond prices

• Steel labor, October 6: The Steelworkers scheduled Cliffs talks to resume October 28. For January sheet, ask whether your supply depends on one mill.

• Factory deliveries, October 15: The New York Fed's survey found longer delivery times among New York manufacturers. Confirm lead times on castings, hardware, and outside processing too.

• Carbide, October 15: SMM reported lower European tungsten-feedstock offers in thin trading. That is not an insert price cut; ask your tooling supplier when its surcharge updates.

• Financing, October 7: Fed minutes said most participants judged another rate hike likely appropriate by year-end, depending on data. Check carrying costs before borrowing at a variable rate to buy January steel early.

What I'm watching next

• October 22: Sandvik's third-quarter report. Look for tooling price guidance before assuming cheaper tungsten will lower insert costs.

• October 23: Nucor's November plate submission cutoff. Confirm your distributor's deadline and the charges included.

• October 28: The Fed decision and scheduled Cliffs talks. Check financing terms and any changes to mill-dependent delivery promises.

Buying metal for an upcoming job, or trying to beat a high quote? Send me your spec and I'll pull 3~4 supplier quotes with lead times in 2~3 business days. First RFQ is free. (Already have a quote in hand? Run it through Quote Check.)

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