The Material Report #020

This fortnight in 30 seconds

Sheet and plate mills have less room to negotiate

For sheet and plate jobs you've won through March, confirm price and delivery now. Don't delay a needed order solely for a discount. Steel Market Update (SMU) reported October 29 that only 3% of buyers said mills would negotiate on new orders. Your distributor may still negotiate on stock it already owns.

In #019, I said there was a little room to negotiate on sheet. The new reading is down 11 percentage points from mid-October, the lowest since 2021 by SMU's count. I'd now put delivery ahead of further price talks.

SMU says average mill lead times extend into January 2027, with some mills quoting February. Plate waits exceed the 2021 peak. These are waits for new production. Stock on a distributor's floor can ship sooner. Nor does every mill have the same wait: SMU's October 26 Nucor letter report still cited 3~5 weeks for its sheet offer.

SMU reports Nucor's posted hot-rolled coil price, a mill reference for sheet, reached $1,280 a short ton on November 2. That's $25 above the October 19 level in #019. It isn't a delivered price for cut sheet or plate.

Our list data below shows why form matters. Tube rose again, while the broad steel median and the four bar grades were flat. Those observations end before the November 2 mill offer. They cannot show a response to that announcement.

Ask whether your size is reserved stock or depends on a mill order. Get the ship date with the price. If an existing quote is honored and the delivery schedule fits your job, order against it. If it expired, budget at the replacement price.

For customer work you haven't won, make your quote expire before your supplier's price does. If the customer needs longer validity, ask whether it will accept a clause that adjusts material cost. Don't promise a fixed March price against a supplier quote that expires in November.

From our benchmark

These are list prices from one national distributor, Southern California basis. We compare medians for the same stock sizes and quantity tiers in complete weeks: October 12 to 18 versus October 26 to November 1.

Tube extended October's increase on October 26 and held through the last observation, October 30. Flat lately doesn't undo earlier increases. Plate's small sample is sensitive to stock dimensions; use your thickness and size, not that median, to check a quote.

Pricing notes

Steel bar: Nucor's earlier October 8 increase covered merchant bar, not every cold-finished or alloy bar. SMU's October 21 scrap report described expectations of November increases, not settled prices. With the tracked grades flat in the table, ask which cost changed on your specific bar quote.

Stainless: North American Stainless held its fuel surcharge at 58% from November 1. Our 304 and 316 bar and sheet medians were flat across 226 products over the benchmark weeks. Those observations end before November shipments. Ask for the November alloy surcharge and base price separately before accepting an increase.

Aluminum: 6061 sheet and plate lists each rose 2 cents/lb over those weeks, across 12 and 25 products. That partly reversed the decline in #019; bar was flat across 240 products. Aluminum exchange prices don't include making finished 6061 stock. Buy for firm work and confirm the supplier's price validity.

Copper and brass: Reuters reported October 30 that copper was headed for a 1.8% monthly loss on the London Metal Exchange. Our C360 brass and C110 copper medians were flat over the benchmark weeks, across 49 and 13 products. These monthly exchange and two-week stock comparisons cover different windows and products. Ask for a current price on your exact form before budgeting savings.

Diesel and freight: EIA's October 26 diesel survey put the US price at $6.352 a gallon, up 17.3 cents since #019's October 12 reading. Ask which survey week sets your delivery surcharge.

Beyond prices

• Machine tool tariffs, October 28: The White House ordered trade talks on robotics and industrial machinery, without imposing a new tariff in that proclamation. The investigation included CNC machines and EDM. Ask dealers to separate existing duties from allowances for possible future tariffs.

• Financing, October 28: The Fed held 3.75~4%; two voters wanted a quarter-point increase. Before borrowing to buy steel early, include interest and storage in the job's material cost.

• Carbide, October 22: Sandvik said its latest increase was set to cover tungsten costs. It also plans to return tariff refunds to Machining customers. Ask your tooling supplier whether your purchases qualify for a credit.

• Imports, November 2: SMU reports competitive foreign offers and service centers buying imports to secure steel. If your customer's specification permits foreign-melted stock, ask about your size and arrival date.

What I'm watching next

• November 3: EIA's next diesel release. Compare its survey date with the one used on your freight quote before expecting a surcharge change.

• November 4: Kennametal's results, due before market open. Look for insert pricing comments before assuming cheaper tungsten means cheaper tools.

• December 8 to 9: The next Fed meeting. Recheck financing terms before accepting an early material delivery that you'll carry into Q1.

Buying metal for an upcoming job, or trying to beat a high quote? Send me your spec and I'll pull 3~4 supplier quotes with lead times in 2~3 business days. First RFQ is free. (Already have a quote in hand? Run it through Quote Check.)

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